This risk model will expand, refine, and scale a science-based analytical framework for characterizing the quantitative safety impact of fuel reduction, defensible space, home hardening, and other risk reduction activities in the MWPA’s jurisdiction. Using new and existing models of combustion, fire behavior, home ignition probability, and fire spread, and MWPA-provided datasets of defensible space inspections (DSI) the risk model will generate a safety impact score for each parcel in the MWPA’s jurisdiction. Further, using an integrated systems approach to wildfire modeling, the risk model will use DSI, home hardening, and large-scale fuel treatment data to characterize how vegetation projects, home hardening, and defensible space work together to reduce community wildfire risk. In this phase of work, the models will be applied to the MWPA’s entire territory to create a detailed structure-scale analysis that characterizes the jurisdictions overall wildfire risk, as well as change in risk due to recent mitigation efforts. The risk model will also produce a live-updating dashboard to provide the MWPA with ongoing analytical support as mitigation and prevention efforts continue. The report and ongoing analysis will roll parcel-scale safety metrics into larger aggregation units, such as evacuation zones or JPA zones.
